What about electrification?

The UK government has committed (November 2020) to banning the sale of new hydrocarbon (only) fuelled vehicles into the UK marketplace by 2030, moving passenger vehicles to an electrified model (with the sale of hybrid vehicles also permitted until at least 2035).

Whilst this represents positive action on behalf of the UK government towards net zero carbon emissions by 2050, there are many challenges to delivering this transition throughout Europe that will transcend political whim or desire.

According to a major Ricardo study on modelling the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) which was undertaken for a biofuel producer (https://epure.org/media/1729/ed51122_epure_cmp_modelling_final-report_issue3.pdf) there will still be a significant need across Europe for decarbonisation using other fuels besides electricity.

The scenarios set out within this study indicate a likely need for 5.3 million tonnes of syngas based synfuels by 2030, rising to 13.3 million tonnes by 2050. To put this into context, each Sustineri plant will produce 150,000 tonnes of fuel per annum.

Even under the most ambitious stretch scenario envisaged within their study, EVs would make up circa 20% of new passenger car sales in 2025 rising to 40% by 2030 – making up only 15.7% of the on-the-road 2030 EU passenger car fleet. This would rise to 55% of the European vehicle fleet by 2050 (inclusive of Fuel Cell EVs); however, the other 45% of the fleet is expected to comprise Hybrid Gasoline based passenger vehicles), providing a long term buffer for biofuel requirements.

On a strictly sales basis there is still a lot of work required to progress to an electrification of the transport sector, even if only concentrated on passenger vehicles. According to statistics provided by the SMMT (https://www.smmt.co.uk/) in 2019, EV sales in the UK made up only 3.1% of total passenger vehicle sales, with annual sales (2016 to 2019 inclusive) of 2.2% of total annual passenger vehicle sales per annum - this does not yet suggest a ramping up in market penetration that would allow for the transition called for by the UK government.

There is no doubt that electric vehicles hold significant promise for decarbonising future road transport infrastructure (once supply of both vehicles and renewable electricity levels can be improved substantially). However they cannot do the whole job in the short to medium term without a major overhaul of the whole Euro transport and electricity supply sector (most electricity production is still non-renewable across Europe) – something that will require much greater levels of investment and support than currently in place. In addition, electrification is unlikely to present a realistic means of decarbonising more difficult transport sectors such as heavy goods and aviation - as such alternative fuel options must be incentivised to aid the progression towards Net Zero.

There is a clear need for transition fuels to cross the gap to this point, going well beyond the timeframes currently proposed for an electric vehicle future. This gap is best filled by the use of very low carbon advanced biofuels produced from waste materials that are able to be used directly in current internal combustion engines without any modifications but which deliver real reductions in carbon impact.